Have you ever used up a biro (e.g. BIC pen). I normally lose the pen before I manage to use up the ink but I have managed to finish one just once.
I keep the empty pen in my man drawer.
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Are empty BIROs a Myth ?
https://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090106114236AAQ5WH7
Have you ever used up a biro (e.g. BIC pen). I normally lose the pen before I manage to use up the ink but I have managed to finish one just once.
I keep the empty pen in my man drawer.
Have you ever used up a biro (e.g. BIC pen). I normally lose the pen before I manage to use up the ink but I have managed to finish one just once.
I keep the empty pen in my man drawer.
Monday, May 19, 2014
All the Shakespearoes
"Whatever happened to all of the heroes?
All the Shakespearoes?
They watched their Rome burn
Whatever happened to the heroes?
Whatever happened to the heroes?"
The Stranglers - No More Heroes
When one thinks of a hero, who does one think of? Somebody who won a VC? perhaps running through a hail of bullets to destroy an enemy machine gun post. A fireman who saves a baby from a burning building. Yes, these people are indeed heroes, but so are lots of others that we never get to hear about.
It is these others that I wanted to reflect upon. The unsung heroes who you did not hear about because they died or because the circumstances in which they performed their heroic acts were not as memorable ...
... or perhaps, more interestingly, what about all those people who actually prevented terrible accidents which subsequently never happened because of their actions. Often, these individuals can receive derision and scorn.
Fictional Event - George Bailey
There is a scene in the movie "It's a wonderful life" where George Bailey wishes that he had never been born and the angel grants him his wish. He then returns to his hometown and everything has changed beyond recognition. Owing to the fact he no longer exists, all of his actions, and their consequences, no longer have any bearing on the history of the town. There is a very poignant scene where he discovers that his brother has died.
Clarence: [explaining] Your brother, Harry Bailey, broke through the ice and was drowned at the age of nine.
George Bailey: That's a lie! Harry Bailey went to war - he got the Congressional Medal of Honor, he saved the lives of every man on that transport.
Clarence: Every man on that transport died! Harry wasn't there to save them, because you weren't there to save Harry.
This apparently un-eventful act, was indeed a heroic act. Without it, his brother would not have been able to be a hero.
Real Event : HMS Titanic
"For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail_(proverb)
I recently watched a documentary on the Titanic and was struck but the number of possible things which, had they not occurred, would have prevented the disaster. One very interesting conclusion was that some of the rivets used to hold the steel plates on the hull together were not strong enough. It was concluded that this was 'directly' responsible for the 60ft gash in the hull. It was basically caused by a whole series of rivets snapping opening the side of the ship like a torn seam. They drew the usual conclusion, "If only they had used stronger rivets a catastrophe could have been prevented …" etc…
That is all very well, and undoubtedly true but just consider this.
Try to imagine the test engineer responsible for the rivets on the Titanic. He discovers that some of the rivets which are being manually fitted are softer than the standard rivets. A further complication is that he only discovers this when 90% of the work has already been completed. He protests to management that they should be using stronger rivets and insists that the rivets are re-applied. He refuses to sign-off the work until this is rectified.
This results in the rivet workers complaining because it is much more difficult for them to work with the harder rivets. The work takes longer and leads to cost-overruns so the management are unhappy. A senior manager threatens to “Hound” the engineer out of his job as the manager’s bonus is directly related to the work being completed on time. The engineer has a sick wife and several small children to support and the pressure he is under results in many sleepless nights.
However, the engineer stands his ground and refuses to sign-off the work until the changes are carried out. The workers grumble. The planners re-schedule. The deadlines slip a couple of months, but somehow or other the time gets made up and the Titanic eventually sets sail on its original target date.
Finally, the fateful day arrives. April 14 1911, 2am, mid-Atlantic. Message from the crow's nest ...
"Iceberg. Dead ahead !".
But wait... Is it a fateful day any longer? The Titanic makes contact with the iceberg. However, this time, the rivets hold and consequently the impact only results in a small dent in the Titanic’s hull. The rest of the voyage is un-eventful and the ship duly docks in New York harbour three days ahead of schedule.
There is a minor story in the New York local paper regarding the Titanic being in a minor collision with an iceberg mid Atlantic with the flippant headline, “Not even God can sink this ship!”, or perhaps the story does not even appear due to a mutually beneficial arrangement between the New York Times senior editor and a New York public relations firm hired by White Star Line.
Did the engineer’s actions prevent a catastrophe? Yes. Is he a hero? Yes, he is. The problem is: who knows ?
Fifteen hundred people no longer died. The Titanic completed a 30 years uneventful service. Captain Smith retired with an unblemished record and lived a long and happy retirement with his wife in Hampshire,England. James Cameron did not win an Oscar for best director at the American Academy Awards for the 1997 film "Titanic" because the film was never made.
More: Why not be a teacher? You'd be a fine teacher. Perhaps a great one.
Rich: lf I was, who would know it?
More: You! Your pupils. Your friends. God. Not a bad public, that.
- Robert Bolt, A Man for all Seasons
or consider another possibility. It is generally accepted that most accidents are the result of several interconnected events which cumulatively result in the eventual tragic outcome. If any one of these events no longer takes place then the accident no longer occurs. The chain is broken.
During the evening of April 14th 1912 the Titanic radio operator received a radio message - warning of ice in the vicinity - from a nearby ship, the Californian. The Titanic radio operator was working Cape Race and, owing to the close proximity of the two ships the signal was deafening.
Given the way in which the message was received the Titanic radio operator was not obligated to convey this message to the Captain, however, the radio operator of the Californian insisted, following the correct protocol, that he should. Consequently, the Captain of the Titanic, acting on the advice, decided to slow the ship to half-speed and was thus able to avoid the iceberg when he received the message "Iceberg, dead ahead !". The ship missed the iceberg by 20 metres.
Did the engineer's actions prevent a catastrophe? The titanic never hit an iceberg so the strength of the rivets was never called into question. What about the radio operator of the Californian. Is he a hero for insisting that the message was relayed to the Captain of the Titanic? Would he receive a commendation for his actions? Did he receive a ticker-tape parade in New York City for saving 1500 lives. How much does John Jacob Astor IV (the Bill Gates of his era) owe the man who saved his life.
We'll never know ...
All the Shakespearoes?
They watched their Rome burn
Whatever happened to the heroes?
Whatever happened to the heroes?"
The Stranglers - No More Heroes
When one thinks of a hero, who does one think of? Somebody who won a VC? perhaps running through a hail of bullets to destroy an enemy machine gun post. A fireman who saves a baby from a burning building. Yes, these people are indeed heroes, but so are lots of others that we never get to hear about.
It is these others that I wanted to reflect upon. The unsung heroes who you did not hear about because they died or because the circumstances in which they performed their heroic acts were not as memorable ...
... or perhaps, more interestingly, what about all those people who actually prevented terrible accidents which subsequently never happened because of their actions. Often, these individuals can receive derision and scorn.
Fictional Event - George Bailey
There is a scene in the movie "It's a wonderful life" where George Bailey wishes that he had never been born and the angel grants him his wish. He then returns to his hometown and everything has changed beyond recognition. Owing to the fact he no longer exists, all of his actions, and their consequences, no longer have any bearing on the history of the town. There is a very poignant scene where he discovers that his brother has died.
Clarence: [explaining] Your brother, Harry Bailey, broke through the ice and was drowned at the age of nine.
George Bailey: That's a lie! Harry Bailey went to war - he got the Congressional Medal of Honor, he saved the lives of every man on that transport.
Clarence: Every man on that transport died! Harry wasn't there to save them, because you weren't there to save Harry.
This apparently un-eventful act, was indeed a heroic act. Without it, his brother would not have been able to be a hero.
Real Event : HMS Titanic
"For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail_(proverb)
I recently watched a documentary on the Titanic and was struck but the number of possible things which, had they not occurred, would have prevented the disaster. One very interesting conclusion was that some of the rivets used to hold the steel plates on the hull together were not strong enough. It was concluded that this was 'directly' responsible for the 60ft gash in the hull. It was basically caused by a whole series of rivets snapping opening the side of the ship like a torn seam. They drew the usual conclusion, "If only they had used stronger rivets a catastrophe could have been prevented …" etc…
That is all very well, and undoubtedly true but just consider this.
Try to imagine the test engineer responsible for the rivets on the Titanic. He discovers that some of the rivets which are being manually fitted are softer than the standard rivets. A further complication is that he only discovers this when 90% of the work has already been completed. He protests to management that they should be using stronger rivets and insists that the rivets are re-applied. He refuses to sign-off the work until this is rectified.
This results in the rivet workers complaining because it is much more difficult for them to work with the harder rivets. The work takes longer and leads to cost-overruns so the management are unhappy. A senior manager threatens to “Hound” the engineer out of his job as the manager’s bonus is directly related to the work being completed on time. The engineer has a sick wife and several small children to support and the pressure he is under results in many sleepless nights.
However, the engineer stands his ground and refuses to sign-off the work until the changes are carried out. The workers grumble. The planners re-schedule. The deadlines slip a couple of months, but somehow or other the time gets made up and the Titanic eventually sets sail on its original target date.
Finally, the fateful day arrives. April 14 1911, 2am, mid-Atlantic. Message from the crow's nest ...
"Iceberg. Dead ahead !".
But wait... Is it a fateful day any longer? The Titanic makes contact with the iceberg. However, this time, the rivets hold and consequently the impact only results in a small dent in the Titanic’s hull. The rest of the voyage is un-eventful and the ship duly docks in New York harbour three days ahead of schedule.
There is a minor story in the New York local paper regarding the Titanic being in a minor collision with an iceberg mid Atlantic with the flippant headline, “Not even God can sink this ship!”, or perhaps the story does not even appear due to a mutually beneficial arrangement between the New York Times senior editor and a New York public relations firm hired by White Star Line.
Did the engineer’s actions prevent a catastrophe? Yes. Is he a hero? Yes, he is. The problem is: who knows ?
Fifteen hundred people no longer died. The Titanic completed a 30 years uneventful service. Captain Smith retired with an unblemished record and lived a long and happy retirement with his wife in Hampshire,England. James Cameron did not win an Oscar for best director at the American Academy Awards for the 1997 film "Titanic" because the film was never made.
More: Why not be a teacher? You'd be a fine teacher. Perhaps a great one.
Rich: lf I was, who would know it?
More: You! Your pupils. Your friends. God. Not a bad public, that.
- Robert Bolt, A Man for all Seasons
or consider another possibility. It is generally accepted that most accidents are the result of several interconnected events which cumulatively result in the eventual tragic outcome. If any one of these events no longer takes place then the accident no longer occurs. The chain is broken.
During the evening of April 14th 1912 the Titanic radio operator received a radio message - warning of ice in the vicinity - from a nearby ship, the Californian. The Titanic radio operator was working Cape Race and, owing to the close proximity of the two ships the signal was deafening.
Given the way in which the message was received the Titanic radio operator was not obligated to convey this message to the Captain, however, the radio operator of the Californian insisted, following the correct protocol, that he should. Consequently, the Captain of the Titanic, acting on the advice, decided to slow the ship to half-speed and was thus able to avoid the iceberg when he received the message "Iceberg, dead ahead !". The ship missed the iceberg by 20 metres.
Did the engineer's actions prevent a catastrophe? The titanic never hit an iceberg so the strength of the rivets was never called into question. What about the radio operator of the Californian. Is he a hero for insisting that the message was relayed to the Captain of the Titanic? Would he receive a commendation for his actions? Did he receive a ticker-tape parade in New York City for saving 1500 lives. How much does John Jacob Astor IV (the Bill Gates of his era) owe the man who saved his life.
We'll never know ...
Monday, April 2, 2012
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Lemon Tea
I like lemon tea. It seems I am not the only one.
The machine tea at work tastes horrible, and as for the milk (powder) it makes the stuff taste like rotting cabbage.
So I select the black tea and add several drops of bottled lemon juice to it.
The machine tea at work tastes horrible, and as for the milk (powder) it makes the stuff taste like rotting cabbage.
So I select the black tea and add several drops of bottled lemon juice to it.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Schrodinger's Crash
I've been thinking about a phenomenon called Schrödinger's Cat (SC) recently. It is the idea that the outcome of an event can change depending on whether or not it is being observed. It is all to do with quantum physics which I dont really understand but I thought of an interesting twist on it related to finance.
On this forum there are regular posts of people predicting that there will be a stock market crash the next day. Really, it's just a bit of fun, but it's always struck me that it never happens on the day they predict it. There are usually very good reasons for the prediction like a country has just defaulted or an earthquake or terrorist attack has occurred. If anything it almost seems as if the opposite occurs much more often when a prediction of doom is posted.
What if this is in fact true! We're heading into the realms of philosopy/theology here I know.
Sir Ken Robinson
Emotional Insurance
I used to make bets on the outcome of football matches and I was absolutely terrible at it. I was so bad that sometimes, it almost seemed as if whatever I did the opposite would happen. I once though I might be able to develop a strategy where I do the exact opposite of what my 'gut feel' was telling me. Would it make me rich ? The irony is that, according to what I am proposing, that very action would affect the outcome - so I might have still lost.
The interesting thing is the greatest win I ever had (by some margin) was when I followed this logic (unconsciously). I developed a strategy called "Emotional Insurance". Essentially, the idea is that one bets on the outcome which will make you most unhappy so that in the event it occurs at least you get a payout to cushion the blow.
Anybody interested in football may remember that there was a European Championship qualifying match between England and Croatia at Wembley. England hadn't been doing particularly well in the qualifiers, under Steve McLaren, and were in the unenviable position of needing to draw with Croatia in order to qualify for the finals. However, the match was at Wembley so everybody was expecting at least a draw.
I was desperate for England to qualify but had a fear that if I bet of them then sods law would inevitable apply. I therefore decided to do precisely the opposite. I would bet heavily on 'Croatia to Win' on the basis that if they didn't I would be very happy that England had qualified. If England lost then I would have a big stash of money to console me. The rest is history. Croatia won at odds of 8 to 1. The insurance payed out, big time!
If England ever get to a European Championship or World Cup final I will bet several hundred pounds on them losing. :-)
Stock Market observations
Bill Bonner, Financial Reckoning Day
The stock market seems to be more driven by what people are feeling that by what they are thinking. Furthermore, nobody seems able to predict precisely when the market will turn. There are numerous people who claim to have predicted the 2008 crash (e.g. Peter Schiff, Max Keiser) but from what I can remember nobody predicted it to the day. They all seemed to observe the many symptoms that were there but when it actually happened I think it took everybody by surprise. I think Jim Rogers is always stating that he is terrible at timing the market.
Is it possible that the market will only finally crash on the day that nobody expects it. The ingredients for the outcome are present but the catalyst will be that nobody is predicting it. Do stock market crashes arrive like a thief in the night.
The situation in the UK housing market today seems eerily similar. The market is in an absolutely dire state. The Market has crashed in Ireland and the USA but for some bizarre reason, which nobody can quite understand, the UK market just refuses to budge. It has not really gone up or down, it just sits there in suspended animation waiting for a catalyst. However, this catalyst is not that Greece will default or that Israel will attack Iran but that nobody will think anything is going to happen.
If you look through history, there is an undeniable self-correcting mechanism at work that, as Bill Bonner used to say, "insures people get what they deserve and not necessarily what they expect". This principle is no less true of governments than it is of the individual investor.
Perhaps this applies just as much to the people who are speculating on house prices crashing as house prices booming which may be precisely why everything is at a standstill.
Beware the Ides of March
William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar
Today I was going to make a prediction of a Market Crash but I think now that it probably will just be another day and nothing much will happen. :-)
Willy Wonka and the Chocolate factory (Columbia Pictures, Roald Dahl)
I've been thinking about a phenomenon called Schrödinger's Cat (SC) recently. It is the idea that the outcome of an event can change depending on whether or not it is being observed. It is all to do with quantum physics which I dont really understand but I thought of an interesting twist on it related to finance.
On this forum there are regular posts of people predicting that there will be a stock market crash the next day. Really, it's just a bit of fun, but it's always struck me that it never happens on the day they predict it. There are usually very good reasons for the prediction like a country has just defaulted or an earthquake or terrorist attack has occurred. If anything it almost seems as if the opposite occurs much more often when a prediction of doom is posted.
What if this is in fact true! We're heading into the realms of philosopy/theology here I know.
if a man speaks his mind, in a forest, and no woman hears him, is he still wrong ?
Sir Ken Robinson
Emotional Insurance
I used to make bets on the outcome of football matches and I was absolutely terrible at it. I was so bad that sometimes, it almost seemed as if whatever I did the opposite would happen. I once though I might be able to develop a strategy where I do the exact opposite of what my 'gut feel' was telling me. Would it make me rich ? The irony is that, according to what I am proposing, that very action would affect the outcome - so I might have still lost.
The interesting thing is the greatest win I ever had (by some margin) was when I followed this logic (unconsciously). I developed a strategy called "Emotional Insurance". Essentially, the idea is that one bets on the outcome which will make you most unhappy so that in the event it occurs at least you get a payout to cushion the blow.
Anybody interested in football may remember that there was a European Championship qualifying match between England and Croatia at Wembley. England hadn't been doing particularly well in the qualifiers, under Steve McLaren, and were in the unenviable position of needing to draw with Croatia in order to qualify for the finals. However, the match was at Wembley so everybody was expecting at least a draw.
I was desperate for England to qualify but had a fear that if I bet of them then sods law would inevitable apply. I therefore decided to do precisely the opposite. I would bet heavily on 'Croatia to Win' on the basis that if they didn't I would be very happy that England had qualified. If England lost then I would have a big stash of money to console me. The rest is history. Croatia won at odds of 8 to 1. The insurance payed out, big time!
If England ever get to a European Championship or World Cup final I will bet several hundred pounds on them losing. :-)
Stock Market observations
People get not what they expect from their investment but what they deserve. Quick profits are lost just as quickly. Little gains, accumulated over many years, tend to remain for many years. If it were not so, everyone would always go for the quick gains. And if that were to happen, the gains would disappear like the grass on a lush island that is suddenly overrun by herds of grazing animals.
Bill Bonner, Financial Reckoning Day
The stock market seems to be more driven by what people are feeling that by what they are thinking. Furthermore, nobody seems able to predict precisely when the market will turn. There are numerous people who claim to have predicted the 2008 crash (e.g. Peter Schiff, Max Keiser) but from what I can remember nobody predicted it to the day. They all seemed to observe the many symptoms that were there but when it actually happened I think it took everybody by surprise. I think Jim Rogers is always stating that he is terrible at timing the market.
Is it possible that the market will only finally crash on the day that nobody expects it. The ingredients for the outcome are present but the catalyst will be that nobody is predicting it. Do stock market crashes arrive like a thief in the night.
The situation in the UK housing market today seems eerily similar. The market is in an absolutely dire state. The Market has crashed in Ireland and the USA but for some bizarre reason, which nobody can quite understand, the UK market just refuses to budge. It has not really gone up or down, it just sits there in suspended animation waiting for a catalyst. However, this catalyst is not that Greece will default or that Israel will attack Iran but that nobody will think anything is going to happen.
If you look through history, there is an undeniable self-correcting mechanism at work that, as Bill Bonner used to say, "insures people get what they deserve and not necessarily what they expect". This principle is no less true of governments than it is of the individual investor.
Perhaps this applies just as much to the people who are speculating on house prices crashing as house prices booming which may be precisely why everything is at a standstill.
Beware the Ides of March
'Well Spurinna, the Ides of March have come.'
'Yes Caesar, come but not yet gone.'
William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar
Today I was going to make a prediction of a Market Crash but I think now that it probably will just be another day and nothing much will happen. :-)
CHARLIE: I wanted to tell you something.
MRS. BUCKET: Oh?
CHARLIE: They found the third ticket today.
MRS. BUCKET: Did they?
CHARLIE: Yeah. Well . . . guess I'll be going now.
MRS. BUCKET: Is that all?
CHARLIE: Well I thought you'd like to know. Most people are pretty interested. I know I'm interested. There are only two tickets left you know. Just two. Pretty soon just one.
MRS. BUCKET: I wonder who the lucky ones will be.
CHARLIE: Well in case you're wondering if it'll be me, it won't be. Just in case you're wondering, you can count me out.
MRS. BUCKET: Charlie . . . there are a hundred billion people in this world, and only five of them will find Golden Tickets. Even if you had a sackful of money you probably wouldn't find one. And after this contest is over, you'll be no different from the billions of others who didn't find one.
CHARLIE: But I am different. I want it more than any of them.
MRS. BUCKET: Charlie, you'll get your chance. One day things will change.
CHARLIE: When? When will they change?
MRS. BUCKET: Probably when you least expect it.
Willy Wonka and the Chocolate factory (Columbia Pictures, Roald Dahl)
Monday, February 28, 2011
dark and miserable
I hate winter evenings.
I go down to the car park and get on my bike. It's usually cold, damp and I'm tired. I sometimes dream of, just one time, having a limo pick me up from work. I would just be picked out and driven home in luxury. Put the radio on in the limo or talk to the driver. Get home, nice and warm.
... but I never do. Perhaps one day, who knows.
Incidentally, I am not really complaining. I know that the exercise is probably good for me and I only have a 20 minute bike ride which is great, compared to the 1.5 hr commute up to London I used to do.
I go down to the car park and get on my bike. It's usually cold, damp and I'm tired. I sometimes dream of, just one time, having a limo pick me up from work. I would just be picked out and driven home in luxury. Put the radio on in the limo or talk to the driver. Get home, nice and warm.
... but I never do. Perhaps one day, who knows.
Incidentally, I am not really complaining. I know that the exercise is probably good for me and I only have a 20 minute bike ride which is great, compared to the 1.5 hr commute up to London I used to do.
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